Population-based prediction of trauma volumes at a Level 1 trauma centre

Beilman, Greg J.; Taylor, Jodie H.; Job, Lisa; Moen, Jesse; Gullickson, Aaron

doi:10.1016/j.injury.2004.03.018

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Volume 35, Issue 12 , Pages 1239-1247, December 2004

Population-based prediction of trauma volumes at a Level 1 trauma centre

Greg J. Beilman
- Department of Surgery, North Trauma Institute, North Memorial Medical Center, Robbinsdale, MN, USA
- Department of Surgery, Division of Surgical Critical Care, University of Minnesota, MMC 11, 420 Delaware Street SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA
- Corresponding author. Tel.: +1-612-625-7911; fax: +1-612-626-0439.
Jodie H. Taylor
- Department of Surgery, Division of Surgical Critical Care, University of Minnesota, MMC 11, 420 Delaware Street SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA
- Department of Surgery, Hennepin County Medical Center, Minneapolis, MN, USA
Lisa Job
- Department of Surgery, North Trauma Institute, North Memorial Medical Center, Robbinsdale, MN, USA
Jesse Moen
- Arithmancer Demographic Consulting, Minneapolis, MN, USA
Aaron Gullickson
- Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA

Accepted 23 March 2004.

Abstract

Objective: With an ageing US population, the demographics of traumatic injuries are being significantly altered. Census projections predict that the number of Americans over age 65 will double in the next 20 years. We used stochastic methods to forecast trauma admissions in order to predict the effects of such demographic changes at our trauma centre.

Methods: Age- and sex-related rates of traumatic admission were determined using population statistics and trauma registry data from 1994 to 1999. These rates were then projected from 2000 to 2025 based on both the Lee–Carter and random walk with drift methods. Stochastic population projections were made and paired with the projected trauma rates, allowing estimation of total trauma volume.

Results: Trauma rates were predicted to increase for most age groups. Trauma admissions are predicted to increase 57% by 2024. By 2019, 50% of trauma admissions will be 60 or older.

Conclusions: Our trauma volume is expected to increase 57% by 2024, an increase of 2% per year. More of this volume will consist of elderly patients, potentially requiring increased health-care resources.

Keywords: Demographics, Elderly, Stochastic, Injury